CAPS Top 50
CAPS
Top 50 and 150 Pest Matrix
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NAPPFAST team members have created risk maps for the CAPS Top 50 Pests. Risk maps have also been created for CAPS 2009, CAPS historical pests and CAPS commodity surveys. The risk maps include those for host density (NASS commodities and USFS forest density), NAPPFAST climate risk maps and a combined risk map. For some pests, such as weeds, the NAPPFAST maps include a climate match map inferred from the pest’s observed distribution. Please note that not all maps are available for all pests. For example, some pests such as viruses are not climatically driven. For some other pests it was not possible to construct a NAPPFAST map due to a lack of data. APHIS personnel or CAPS cooperators may contact Dan Borchert or Roger Magarey to request risk maps that are not on the list.
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Map Description
The host risk map describes the relative density (on a scale of 1-10) of susceptible hosts. The maps are based on National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data. The scale of one to ten describes the proportion of total host acreage per county: for example a rank of one indicates no host acreage, while a score of ten indicates that 75-100%of the acres in the county contain suitable hosts for the pest. More details.
The NAPPFAST risk map describes the relative climatic suitability (on a scale of 1-10) for a pest to grow and survive. The maps are based on 10-years of daily data from NAPPFAST. A value of one represents a low likelihood of pest growth and survival, while a 10 indicates high likelihood of pest growth and survival. More details
A final risk map describes the combined host and climatic suitability on a scale of 1-10. A value of one represents a low density of susceptible hosts and low likelihood of pest growth and survival. A value of 10 indicates high density of susceptible hosts and a high likelihood of pest growth and survival. For pests that are insensitive to climate the host risk map will be the final risk map. More details.
Pathways Risk maps
We have developed Pathway Risk maps in ArcGIS for the top 50 CAPS pest targets using the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) database. The risk is rated on a scale of 1-10 based on the volume of commodities associated with the pest. More details.
Pareto Summary risk
map (coming soon)
The Pareto summary risk map will show overall risk from climate, host and pathways risk maps. The Pareto method is under construction by Denys Yemshanov (CFS) and Frank Koch (USFS/NCSU). No more details are available at this point in time.
The observed map shows the distribution of the pest based on records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility or from the scientific literature.
A climate match map infers the potential distribution of a pest using climate data and its current observed distribution. Two climate methods are used by NAPPFAST staff. A manual method, where the NAPPFAST user manually overlays observed points with climate data. More details An automated method, currently under development, calculates the distribution mathematically from georeferenced observations More details.
Detailed
Methods for Risk Maps
More information: contact Dan Borchert (919 855 7545) or Roger Magarey (919 855 7537)
Project Members:
Raleigh NAPPFAST GIS
Group: Ft
Collins GIS Group:
Dan Borchert Peg Margosian
Jessica Engle Lisa Kennaway
Roger Magarey Tom Kalaris
Chris Chanelli Jonathan Kittel
Kathryn Echerd