NAPPFAST Pest Risk Maps
History
of risk map development
NAPPFAST team members have created risk maps for the CAPS 2011 Top 50 AHP Pests. Risk maps have also been created for CAPS AHP 2011, CAPS historical pests, and CAPS commodity surveys. The risk maps include those for host density (NASS commodities and USFS forest density), NAPPFAST climate risk maps, and a combined risk map. For some pests, such as weeds, the NAPPFAST maps include a climate match map inferred from the pests observed distribution. Please note that not all maps are available for all pests. For example, some pests such as viruses are not climatically driven. For some other pests it was not possible to construct a NAPPFAST map due to a lack of data. APHIS personnel or CAPS cooperators may contact Dan Borchert or Roger Magarey to request risk maps that are not on the list.
To open the spreadsheet, click on this link and select open. The links will not work if you save the spreadsheet before opening it. Please use internet explorer to view the matrix, otherwise use the html versions. .
For a complete description of host, climate (NAPPFAST), pathways and Pareto risk maps please see the following article published in EPPO Bulletin. Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States. R. D. Magarey, D. M. Borchert, J. S. Engle, M. Colunga-Garcia, F. H. Koch and D. Yemshanov (2011) EPPO Bulletin 41:46:56.
Map Descriptions
The host risk map describes the relative density (on a scale of 1-10) of susceptible hosts. The maps are based on National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data and Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. The scale of one to ten describes the proportion of total host acreage per county: for example a rank of one indicates no host acreage, while a score of ten indicates that 75-100%of the acres in the county contain suitable hosts for the pest.
The NAPPFAST risk map describes the relative climatic suitability (on a scale of 1-10) for a pest to grow and survive. The maps are based on 10-years of daily data from NAPPFAST. A value of one represents a low likelihood of pest growth and survival, while a 10 indicates high likelihood of pest growth and survival.
A final risk map represents describes the combined host and climatic suitability on a scale of 1-10. The NAPPFAST risk map and the host risk map were multiplied to obtain a final risk map. A value of one represents low density of susceptible hosts and low likelihood of pest growth and survival. A value of 10 indicates high density of susceptible hosts and a high likelihood of pest growth and survival. Where there is no NAPPFAST map because a pest is not influenced by climate then the host map will be equivalent to a final risk map.
Pathways Risk maps
We
have developed Pathway Introduction Point maps in ArcGIS for the top 50 CAPS
pest targets using the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) database. The
risk is rated on a scale of 1-10 based on the volume of commodities associated
with the pest from infested countries.
Pareto Summary risk map
The Pareto summary risk map will show overall risk from climate, host and pathways risk maps. The Pareto method is under construction by Denys Yemshanov (CFS) and Frank Koch (USFS/NCSU). No more details are available at this point in time.
The observed map shows the distribution of the pest based on records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility or from the scientific literature.
The BAMM Climate
matching tool is used to create risk maps based on a statistical relationship
between the pest observations and climate. For more details see the BAMM manual and the power point presentation
for a general overview of climate matching.
More information: contact Dan Borchert (919 855 7545) or Roger Magarey (919 855 7537)
Project Members:
2010-2011
Raleigh NAPPFAST GIS Group:
Jessica Engle NCSU Post Doctoral Research Assistant Denys Yemshanov Canadian Forest Service Research Scientist
Dan Borchert APHIS-PPQ-CPHST-PERAL Risk Analyst Frank Koch NCSU Research Assistant Professor
Roger Magarey NCSU CIPM Senior Researcher Manuel Colunga MSU CBCEO Senior Researcher
Scott Chanelli NCSU Student Intern
Kathryn Echerd NCSU Student Intern
2008-2009
Raleigh NAPPFAST GIS Group: Ft Collins GIS Group:
Dan Borchert APHIS-PPQ-CPHST-PERAL Risk Analyst Peg Margosian APHIS-PPQ-CPHST Science Fellow
Jessica Engle NCSU Post Doctoral Research Assistant Lisa Kennaway APHIS-PPQ-CPHST Geographer
Roger Magarey NCSU CIPM Senior Researcher Tom Kalaris APHIS-PPQ-CPHST Biostatistician
Chris Chanelli NCSU Student Intern Jonathan Kittel APHIS-PPQ-CPHST Student Intern
Kathryn Echerd NCSU Student Intern